3/1/23 - Energy Market Trading Journal - Gain of $200 / 6%
Thoughts on the day and my performance
Today took a bit of courage.From 7:30am through 8:15am NG dropped from 2.77 to 2.66. I started the day holding 225 shares ($1,500) in BOIL. At 8:15am I was negative $115 dollars on the day. I thought about selling to prevent further loss but I'm glad I didn't. at 8:58am I noticed the price going backup, and purchased 250 more shares of BOIl.
At 1pm the price of NG (NGJ3) hit 2.8 before dropping to 2.74 in under 5 minutes, and then popping back up to 2.8 by 1:10pm. It's at this level that I sold at 1:15pm and ended my day of trading Natural Gas.
The price peaked at 1:35pm at 2.83 before dropping back to 2.78 as I write this at 6:45pm.
I am proud of myself for not selling when I was at negative 115 dollars in the morning. I'm also happy with where I bought in with more stocks, and I'm happy where I sold-- pretty close to the top. The day could not have gone much better.
Thoughts on Natural Gas Performance
Today was the first day that Natural Gas ended lower than it began. It started the day at 2.811 and is currently at 2.786. This will be the first red day since February 21st-- 8 days ago. The graph line also seems to be rounding out at the top, no longer rising so steeply. It makes me think we are due for a day or two of retracement in prices. The RSI is near 60 on the daily chart. I will have to keep an eye on what the price does over-night, but I expect to be bullish in the morning, followed by a big sell-off in the late morning. I base this guess on the fact that the market loves to trick people-- thus the slow rise in the morning to draw people in before the huge sell off. I expect the day might end around 2.70.
The Plan
I don't really have any certain feeling of what is going to happen tomorrow. It might go low or high. The long-term trend is downward, so this could be the top of a good bounce off the bottom. I think I will buy something like $1000 in KOLD early in the morning and hold it. I will sell if it goes negative more than $50 dollars.
Normally I think it's okay to allow things to go negative as far as 200 dollars, but not on days where I am less certain of what is going to happen. It always seems like a risk when betting on KOLD.
A note on WTI Crude Oil (CLJ3)
I also decided to trade some crude today. I am holding 75 shares ($2,100) of UCO which is a 2x leveraged ETF that bets WTI Crude will go up. I will simply continue to hold UCO until the price looks to have peaked. I expect the price will peak at $80. We are currently at 77.66 so there is some room to run still.
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