Lessons from Today's $450 dollar BOIL Loss, & plans for tomorrow's trades

Lessons from Today's $450 dollar BOIL Loss

Today was a big loss for me in Henry Hub Natural gas trading. I started the day holding KOLD (Inverse Leveraged Natural Gas ETF) but I thought I identified the Natural Gas price low at 10:32am and sold my KOLD at 58.20. I then purchased 800 shares of BOIL soon after, expecting that the price would rocket up.

Instead, the price crashed and instead of selling after a $100 loss, I held until I was negative $450 dollars on the day.

I think the lesson here is that I need to sell earlier when I am wrong about the price. No more trying to predict a bounce.

After I sold my BOIL at a huge loss, I decided to short WTI Crude oil since I believe that is about to fall in price. When looking at the monthly chart, there seems to be a wave-like pattern with an up-trend that has been going on since December. We seem to be headed down toward the trough-- or that is my prediction at least. On this prediction, I am holding 100 shares ($2,411) of SCO ETF. which is a 2x inverse leveraged ETF which shorts Crude Oil.

Planned Trades for Tomorrow

Tomorrow morning, I expect to see Crude begin its down trend. If it shows signals of being bullish, or goes up more than 2%, I will sell and take the loss.

EIA reports crude oil inventories up 16m barrels. This lends support to the idea that I might be able to hold SCO for a few days, benefiting from the leverage on a 20% gain assuming crude drops 10% by Friday the 17th of Feb 2023.

Natural Gas seems to have hit support around 2.47. It's been bullish in after hours trading. I believe it will go up tomorrow, but it could also continue its drop tomorrow. If I see bullish signs in the morning, I will buy into BOIL ETF with $1000 with the intent to sell when natural gas hits 2.55.


Have a good night, and thanks for reading my first trading blog!








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