2/22/23 - Energy Market Trading Journal - Loss of $50

 A volatile day for Natural Gas

Today the natural gas market really threw me! I started the day holding KOLD, and I bought even more around 6am assuming Natural Gas would go down. Instead, Natural gas bottomed out around 6:15am and it really started to go up in price! After going negative $10 around 6:53am, I decided to sell my KOLD to mitigate my losses. 

Later in the morning around 10:28am I decided to buy some shares of BOIL since Natural Gas was shooting up and I thought I might be able to make a bit on that trend. This worked for me at first, and I was up $25 on the day until about 1pm when Natural gas dropped in the spam of an hour from 2.25 to 2.16, wiping out my gains and putting me negative $50. 

I promised myself I would not allow myself to go negative more than $50 on any trading day, so I decided to purchase a an equal amount of KOLD to hedge both ways for the remainder of the day.

Thoughts / Lessoned Learned from today

Natural Gas experienced a really big jump in price today. The price seems to continue to trend downward, but the steep sell-off from yesterday seems to have resulted in a sort of after-shock correction. I think my trades today were prudent, though I should not have waited until 10 to purchase BOIL. It really seems like most of the big action for the day in Natural Gas is done by noon. 

I think we are nearing the bottom for sure, so I should keep my bets light in the coming days.

Plan for tomorrow 

My plan tomorrow is to get rid of my BOIL shares in early trading and hopefully enjoy a 5-10% rise in my KOLD shares with the intent to sell KOLD by 11am. If I am wrong about KOLD, and Natural Gas goes up beyond 2.55, I will end sell and end my trading for the day.














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